3 posts tagged “nuke wmd”
The publicity of Iran’s nuclear ambitions seem to fade in the American press as the November 2008 elections creep slowly nearer; yet the repercussions of a nuclear armed Iran is increasingly growing as a global threat. The global threat is NOT because America is in Iraq attempting to create a stable government. Nay good friends, the global threat is because Iran’s government is under a leadership that looks for global chaos due to the religious expectations of Radical Shi’ites belief that the Twelfth (Lost) Imam will be the Mahdi. These radical Shi’ites expect this Mahdi to make the Earth Mohammedan in its entirety.
All the politics of a U.S. occupation of Iraq is the propaganda that these Shi’ite Twelvers revel in with this Mahdi expectation. (The Wahhabi Sunnis have their own reasons of American hatred that are similar yet very different.)
This radical Shi’ite mindset is why it is so globally dangerous for Iran to become a nation in possession of nuclear weapons. There would be no geo-political restraint of the old Cold War Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) theory preventing nuclear powers from engaging in a nuclear war. Iran would push the warhead launch buttons merely to enable chaos in a deluded realization of the Mahdi.
International diplomacy crawls at a snails pace. The Ayatollahs of Iran are using the political management of Twelver disciple President Ahmadinejad to surge Iran into the possession of nuke WMD’s. Ahmadinejad has taken full advantage of Western style diplomacy to move their program along without interruption. The West talks while Iran walks toward the WMD dream.
Iran has successfully tied up America in Iraq and (to a lesser degree) in Afghanistan by being a weapons supplier and terrorist trainer. The vehicle Iran has utilized for tying the American military (essentially killing our military boys clandestinely) is the Revolutionary Guard. The Revolutionary Guard is essentially Iran’s extra-military force outside its regular Military that is at the trusted bidding of the Ayatollahs. The Revolutionary Guard has its origins in the lack of trust in a U.S. trained Iranian Military under the rule of deposed Shah, an extremely loyal ally of America dumped for his repression of Iranians by screw-up President Carter. Thus Iran exchanged the repression of the Shah for the repression of the Khomeini Revolution. The exchange of repression for repression did not help the plight of Iranians and this is why Carter is a screw-up, especially in the realm of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
U.N. Sanctions have been highly ineffective in slowing down Iran’s nuclear process because Russia and China’s support of Iran. Russia’s distaste for America probably arises from jealously from taken down a notch by America’s overwhelming the former Communist Soviet Union. China’s support of Iran is due to a National Interest connection due to the obvious – oil.
The EU has attempted talks with Iran but that is part of the stall agenda of Ahmadinejad, in other words a failure.
America has ratcheted its own sanctions to a much higher degree than the U.N. on Iran yet having little effect on Iran’s nuclear expansion. President Bush has upped the ante on sanctions by preparing to place the Revolutionary Guard on America’s Terrorist list. This will make it tougher for American Corporations or foreign Corporations that come under the jurisdiction of American law to deal with Iran. It will allow Iranian assets related to the Revolutionary Guards to be frozen as well.
Do I think this will slow down Iran’s nuclear program? Nope. However I do think it will annoy Iran that they may make a move that may expose publicly what Western governments already know clandestinely; viz. that Iran is way more dangerous to global peace than the official Appeasement line of the West is willing to admit to their constituent public or the Left dominated deluded pro-Arab and pro-oil-Iran loving media are willing to admit.
Apparently “political correctness” has scored a diplomatic victory for Iran. The key: Have lots of oil then thumb your political nose at International (i.e. useless U.N.) EVERY SINGLE TIME a Resolution is put forth calling Terminate to terminate their nuclear program.
Here is Decision 08 quoting the Chicago Tribune:
Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. Tehran may well have passed the critical point, at which its scientists have mastered the technological feat of keeping thousands of delicate centrifuges spinning at terrific speeds. If so, that means all the assumptions about when might be capable of enriching enough uranium to build a bomb would need to be recalculated. ’s ability to build a bomb — estimated by various intelligence officials to be five to 10 years off — is likely to be moved up.
Here’s the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they’ve got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told The New York Times. “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”
No, we don’t like to hear it. But the sooner that fact is acknowledged, the sooner the Security Council can drop the pretense that the slow ratcheting of sanctions will force the Iranians to freeze their enrichment efforts. Incremental pressure won’t budge . The only sanctions with even the faintest hope of stopping the Iranians are also the ones that would require the greatest international cooperation and cause the most economic pain worldwide.
Embargoing Iran’s oil exports, for instance, would stagger ’s already shaky economy. But the embargo would likely spring huge leaks even as pump prices rocketed. The other sensitive Iranian target: gasoline. Iran has huge oil reserves but it lacks sufficient refinery capacity and must import more than a third of its gasoline, mainly from Europe and India. A gas embargo could devastate much of the country’s industry, if it were enforced. Such dramatic measures could also backfire, rallying support for the ruling mullahs.
The next UN Security Council deadline for to ignore falls next week.
Koinonia House has this commentary on the Times of London article about Israeli preparation to utilize low yield nuke strikes on Iran. Khouse.org utilizes an Israeli think tank – Institute for National Security Studies. READ THE COMMENTARY.
