9 posts tagged “nuclear proliferation”
Remember the National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 that proclaimed to the world that Iran had abandoned a weapons program in connection with the building of their weapons grade nuclear plant?
When that NIE report came out Iran crowed the big International “I told you so.”
But here is the thing: the NIE 2007 contradicted previous NIE reports and did not align with Israeli Intelligence. Many anti-war Westerners obviously would slough off Israeli Intelligence due to the fact that Israel and Iran are mortal enemies publicly in the war of words and behind the back door with the hushed diplomatic channels on obvious Iranian military supplies to Hezbollah and Hamas. Those two Islamist murdering terrorists (one is Shi’ite and the latter is Sunni) have one agenda: the destruction of Israel and the genocide of Jews.
But lo and behold it is becoming evident that NIE 2007 was a report put together by pro-Arab/pro-Islam oil authors because recent events (including the Israeli destruction of a secret Syrian nuclear program) and verified Intelligence from both British and Israeli Intelligence sheds light on a different outcome than NIE 2007. That outcome is indeed that Iran is has a nuke weapons program.
Apparently if the pro-Arab/pro-oil American Intelligence is willing to look the other way to embarrass the Bush Administration, Mossad of Israel and MI6 of Britain are collaborating and putting Intelligence notes that are leaning strongly to another conclusion completely divergent of the American Intelligence Community (an amalgam of Intelligence Agencies) headed by the Director of National Intelligence that collated the data to arrive at the NIE 2007 conclusion on Iran’s agenda.
Mossad and MI6 believe there is substantial evidence to execute some form of military strike on Iran to slow down or hopefully end Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Israel is even willing to risk a go it alone mission. Israel is hoping to get at least an OK from Washington and London to back up such an expedition since Leftists in both nations would scream bleeding heart murder if the American and British governments participated in such an endeavor.
My guess is that an Israeli strike would provoke a Middle Eastern free-for-all military chess that would draw America and possibly Western nations into the fray. That is not even mentioning the probable support of Iran by Russia and China that could range from limited to the extreme.
Wake up America! The Islamist/Western confrontation is on the horizon.
Aaron Klein reports that a Palestinian Intelligence terrorist official is claiming that an America will attack Iran in two to three months if the latest round of sanctions is ignored by Iran.
When the Palestinian-Arab was asked on what he based his claim, he evaded the answer. The terrorist just said he “understood” from talks relating to Palestinian Statehood that America intends to pay for Arab support against Iran, including creating a Palestinian State, to launch an attack on Iranian nuke facilities.
The story could be a geopolitical brinksmanship plant in which everyone knows that World Net Daily would report. The purpose of the plant is to extend more back door notification that the Bush Administration is serious of its intentions.
In speculation there is always an “on the other hand.” The scenario makes sense.
The Arab dictatorships and Arab Monarchies (e.g. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia) not connected to the puppet strings of Iran (e.g. as Syria, Hezbollah and radical Shi’ites of Iraq) are feeling the heat of Islamist Theo-political fundamentalism (whether it is Wahhabi or radical Shi’ite). Greed of power and wealth of Arab ruling and wealthy elites does not line up with the tenets of Islamist Theo-political ideology. For many of these Arab elites (not all for some do buy into Islamism) a unified Mohammedan Islamist Caliphate-like scenario would dip into a lifestyle that runs counter to Islamism.
Then there is the Palestine issue itself. The establishment of a sovereign Palestine (God forbid) would relieve a lot of public pressure upon Arab elites to constantly have an anti-Israel policy. Certainly in public the Mohammedan minions would not accept a pro-Israel stance because of the Dar al-Islam ideology that is ingrained in the Mohammedan mind; however among the ruling Arab elites a secretive benign policy toward Israel would go a long way in perpetuating the economic status quo and empower the ruling Arab elites to keep ruling. These Arab elites may look medieval however petro-wealth has embraced them into the 21st century global economy.
If a Palestine State exists, the Arab elites can focus more resources on shoring up their power locally.
Again, “on the other hand,” the construct of a current sovereign Palestine would be a polarity of radical religious Islamists (like Hamas) versus radical Islamofascist terrorists that use religion to gain the traditional Arabic power structure (like Fatah). In either case, a sovereign Palestine would be ruled by Terrorists whose goal is still to destroy Israel.
If an Iran, Syria Hezbollah troika attacks Israel before the US implements an attack on Iranian nuke facilities; certainly the new Palestine would join the Mohammedan troika.
The other Arab elites who had promised allegiance to America to support an American attack on Iran would be forced to reevaluate their National Interests. I suspect if there was a hint of success against the Israel’s IDF; some Arab elites would join the troika at least with lip service to satisfy the blood lust of their Mohammedan citizens.
It would be a tough call for the Arab elites for if Israel held off an Islamist attack long enough, America would be forced to use their military resources to strike back – even if Russia and China nodded support toward the Iranian coalition.
This speculation may deviate into an uncountable amount of scenarios based on who supports whom; however one thing would be certain – it would be another World War for the globe.
The essence of escalation or backing down will be all about timing and global reactions.
***************************
Secretary of State Condi Rice and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson made joint statements announcing sanctions on Iran and explaining the reasoning for the sanctions.
The sanctions in a nutshell are tagged into Iran’s insistence of creating weapons grade uranium which is a quality way beyond needed for peaceful nuclear energy.
A few subdivision reasonings surrounded Iran’s constant threatening of Israel and America for interfering with the Iranian nuke program, the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force actively supplying arms and training to terrorists from the Taliban, Shi’ites in Iraq, Hamas of pseudo-Palestinians and Hezbollah.
It is now illegal for business to be conducted with Iran wherever there is American jurisdiction and whatever Iranian assets under Iranian jurisdiction will be frozen.
The official government stand is that this is not a prelude to war with Iran; however Presidential statements, Vice Presidential statements and now State/Treasury statements are a chain of aggressive wording that has all the appearances of daring Iran to cross the line in the sand (if they already have not done so).
I can’t wait to hear the official Iranian response to today’s turning of the screws of pressure on Iran to comply with American led International wishes.
Experts in the field of terrorism have been warning for years that a homeland terrorist attack on a big scale will be attempted and if successful could be devastating to the political-social-economic infrastructure of the current most powerful nation on planet Earth – The United States of America.
The Left and particularly the leadership of the Democratic Party have become incredibly dull to this threat due to the only idea they have for America; i.e. to eradicate the George Bush Administration and the Christian Conservative impetus America has floated on since the Reagan years.
Did I mention the word “eradicate”?”
That is the only true idea and agenda of the Democratic Party: Eradicate Bush policies and reimpliment failed utopian socialistic ideas of the Democratic Party past. Certainly some of those utopian concepts are based on the altruistic benevolence toward the general good of humanity; nonetheless the burden of extra taxation and the dumbing down of the American Military simultaneously will come back to bite the butts of the Democrats and Americans who do not have a vision for security for America.
Now I have just been implying transnational terrorists such as al Qaeda; however there is another rogue on the global street that espouses the traditional structure of sovereign Statehood – Iran.
There have been scenarios as to how a two-bit nation can inflict serious damage on the BEST nation the world has ever seen: America.
The Axis of evil was at one time: Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Iraq was bumped from that list.
I guess the next Axis of Evil would be Syria, Iran and North Korea. All three are rogue nations destabilizing peace in their regions.
Now I am reading in the Scotsman.com that Burma is preparing to join the Axis of evil club. Burma is already a rogue nation with a horrible human rights record. The nation is ruled by a military junta Dictatorship.
Apparently Burma is rich in natural resources and is prepared to profit on those resources. Who is paying for the natural resources? China, Russia and India.
Russia is aiding Burma in preparation of nuclear plants. Does that sound familiar?
China is buying oil and setting up naval bases on Burmese islands. This is part of the Chinese military strategy known as the “String of Pearls.” This is a reference to China’s growing military that is ever increasing Asian hegemonic power.
India is not happy with China’s emerging military via a nuclear navy in the Bay of Bengal.
India is competing for oil and gas exports from Burma by selling military arms. India is loosing that wooing game because Burma is allowing China into the Bay of Bengal and Russia is fulfilling a nuclear aspiration. This means India has a nuclear competitor in Pakistan and China and potentially Burma and Iran. India is being surrounded. India has been in Russia’s orbit for years. I am thinking this nuclear power encircling of India may force India to become a full partner of America.
The Scotsman.com reports one other tidbit about Burma wanting into the Axis of Evil club. Burma has normalized relations with North Korea: The bad boy that relies on China and threatens South Korea, Japan and America.
Apparently “political correctness” has scored a diplomatic victory for Iran. The key: Have lots of oil then thumb your political nose at International (i.e. useless U.N.) EVERY SINGLE TIME a Resolution is put forth calling Terminate to terminate their nuclear program.
Here is Decision 08 quoting the Chicago Tribune:
Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. Tehran may well have passed the critical point, at which its scientists have mastered the technological feat of keeping thousands of delicate centrifuges spinning at terrific speeds. If so, that means all the assumptions about when might be capable of enriching enough uranium to build a bomb would need to be recalculated. ’s ability to build a bomb — estimated by various intelligence officials to be five to 10 years off — is likely to be moved up.
Here’s the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they’ve got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told The New York Times. “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”
No, we don’t like to hear it. But the sooner that fact is acknowledged, the sooner the Security Council can drop the pretense that the slow ratcheting of sanctions will force the Iranians to freeze their enrichment efforts. Incremental pressure won’t budge . The only sanctions with even the faintest hope of stopping the Iranians are also the ones that would require the greatest international cooperation and cause the most economic pain worldwide.
Embargoing Iran’s oil exports, for instance, would stagger ’s already shaky economy. But the embargo would likely spring huge leaks even as pump prices rocketed. The other sensitive Iranian target: gasoline. Iran has huge oil reserves but it lacks sufficient refinery capacity and must import more than a third of its gasoline, mainly from Europe and India. A gas embargo could devastate much of the country’s industry, if it were enforced. Such dramatic measures could also backfire, rallying support for the ruling mullahs.
The next UN Security Council deadline for to ignore falls next week.
Yossi Klein Halevi and Michael B. Oren writing for the Jewish World Review explain Israel's existential fears. The threat of a nuclear arsenal by a Mohammedan nation in simplest form strategically removes almost all military superiority Israel has accrued over its short modern existence.
Israel is a haven for Jews to live in a freedom from political persecution for the first times since the Maccabees successfully resisted a Hellenic Syria (Seleucid dynasty established in the area after the death of Alexander the Great). The Maccabees successfully retook Jerusalem and purified the Temple in 164 BC. This day is celebrated by Judaism as Hanukah (aka Chanukah).
If the West abandons Israel to face a nuclear armed Mohammedan world, Israel's military conventional forces will be nearly neutralized. An Iranian nuclear of chemical launched missile will encourage Syria and Hezbollah (and possibly other Mohammedan nations) to launch a conventional military assault on a crippled Israel.
Another scenario is the Israeli realization that the West will conclude to NOT prevent a nuclear Iran. Knowing what the strategical stakes are, Israel launches preemptive air strikes on Iran in the hope of slowing down nuclear armament. If Iran has no nukes it is probable they have chemical weapons. Iran definitely has the missile power to reach Israel. Iran launches missile strikes on Israel followed closely by tactical invasions by Syria, Hezbollah of Lebanon and radical Islamofascist terrorists from the Palestine Authority (or Palestine Liberation Organization), including infamous Hamas.
Keep in mind that the Jewish Homeland is just a little sliver of land that the arrogant Mohammedans begrudge the Jews. Twenty-first century technology and Western appeasement might produce the globes SECOND Holocaust in the deaths of millions of Jews. Over what? A mere parcel of land that was insignificant until Jews turned the land into an agricultural paradise. Before the Jewish arrivals in pre-modern Israel, the land was a waste area that Mohammedan Arabs and Turks had zero interest in.
The Mohammedans cannot stand that the Jews made the Land prosperous again because of their superiority complex. The Jews return to their homeland and Mohammedan Arabs wish to claim the credit for Jewish innovation with propaganda epithets like, “The right of return.”
There were hardly any Arabs in the sliver of Land known as Israel today, until Jewish prosperity provided jobs for Mohammedan Arabs (later created as Palestinian Arabs).
That is the brief scenario. Halevi and Oren go into greater detail of Israeli fears. (READ IT. This link will take you to this introduction. Simply scroll down to the Halevi and Oren assessment.)
The Sunday Times of London has revealed that is preparing military plans to utilize precision low yield nuclear strikes on Iranian nuclear targets.
Wow!
I will let you read the details that the Times revealed. I wish to talk about the consequences and potential benefits of such a military adventure.
First let us consider propaganda. Ahmadinejad has frequently and often been saying that Israel will be wiped of the map while simultaneously bragging about ’s nuclear progress. One does not have to be a math genius to add two plus two equals four. Israel’s calculations needs to weigh is Ahmadinejad an evil maniacal Islamofascist leader or is he merely posture with propaganda to enable Iran to be a military power in the Middle East.
If Ahmadinejad is a maniac, then it is simple addition: two plus two equals four.
If Ahmadinejad is posturing to be a regional power to deal with in the , then the equation is a bit more complicated with yet to be known variables that will end with a global answer.
If ’s calculations are based on simple math, then may be leaking their intentions to have Ahmadinejad or his Ayatollah elders soften their public stand as well as open the Iranian so-called peaceful nuclear program to unrestrained IAEA inspection. This would be a little tit-for-tat hard line propaganda between and . If ups the ante in the propaganda, may actually follow through unilaterally on their leaked information.
I say “unilaterally” because is beginning to have the impression that the Bush Administration might become hamstrung by the Democratic Party dominated U.S. Congress. This means feels alone in battling for its existence. There is NO way could allow an Islamofascist Iran to be armed with nuclear WMD. (and I) believes that would lead to a 21st century Holocaust.
If ’s calculations are based on a more difficult equation, then would have to think of the consequences of Jewish hatred fueled not only in the , but in the West as well. If anti-Semitism is growing now in the West, it could become huge if uses nuclear weapons on a first strike basis. Such anti-Semitism could threaten existentially as much as wiping the Jewish State off of the map. If abandons due to a Slanted Left and Paleo-con strengthened anti-Israel political position, then will in affect have zero powerful backers.
Let us next consider that ’s President Ahmadinejad anti-Semite war mongering words are not propaganda but rather the will of the ruling Ayatollah elites of .
If the Bush Administration also believes that Ahmadinejad rhetoric is beginning to be a mixture of Twelver Shi’ite theology and political policy, then the American military may be positioning to aid in striking Iranian nuclear sites. I say this because there has been speculation due to who is taking over CentCom over American forces in . Admiral William Fallon is the speculated replacement for retiring General Abizaid.
Do you catch this? A Navy man is replacing an Army man as Commander of Ground and Naval forces in the and area. There have also been additions to Carriers and Naval support vessels to the area. Hmm… Could there be a coordination of a military strike with on?
Is it possible that Bush senses that there will be no financial support to complete the job in and thus is willing to take a gamble on escalating engagement with ’s nuclear ambitions? There are indications that this might be the change of strategy that Bush is proceeding with.
Let us examine if operates unilaterally without American help. Assuming is successful on Times information on three targets; what will be the consequences for ? The repercussions could range from the extreme to the mild.
Of has threatened it will unleash the full anger of terrorism on the West which will include disrupting the flow of oil to the West. Depending on the success in carrying out Iranian threats other Mohammedan nations may join; however there is the Sunni/Shi’ite conflict. Secretly (Wahhabi sect of the Sunni) may relish a diminishment of , though I doubt the Saudis would express this glee publicly.
What happens if acts unilaterally to strike Iranian nuclear sites? Probably same results that experiences would be the outcome.
What happens if and act in tandem with precision strikes against nuclear sites? Again the result of anger will be the same.
Europe is too cowardly to act.
Russia and China are too invested too act.
That leaves and . They might as well do something they have actually done in the past: a joint military precision military strike to set Iranian nuclear ambitions back. Let the consequences fall where they may.
As expected, Iran is thumbing its Mohammedan superiority complex at the U.N. Security Council. Not only is Iran ignoring the Resolution Sanctions, Ahmadinejad responded with a veiled threat that the West would pay for meddling in Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Also Iran is exploring leaving the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as if Iran cooperated or listened to the IAEA anyway.
Because of Russia and China the Security Council is committed to diplomacy and civilian thumb screwing to attempt to make Iran forsake a nuclear ambition that will certainly lead to Weapons of Mass destruction. By the time America and Europe realize that only military solutions will convince Iran it may be too late to engage in military action that will make a soft difference as opposed to a nightmare that will make Iraq look like a picnic.