6 posts tagged “india”
Here is an enigmatic essay about India and China. The byline implies that the long standing foes and competitors in Asia are embarking on some kind of rapprochement. However as you read through the analysis it appears to be paragraph after paragraph of what ifs.
The conclusion that the commonality between India and China is commerce however distrust between the emerging Asian giants is far from being resolved. The enigma is will China continue to get involved with nations in India’s sphere of influence and sphere of turbulence or will India overlook that continuing Chinese excursions and seek to strengthen each other by cooperation in boosting each others economies.
How does the enigma affect American National Interests? Bush not too long ago reached out to India to forge bilateral cooperation in the nuclear realm probably to coax a partner with India’s hated enemies of Mohammedan nations. It is like Bush is trying to find a back-up if the Musharraf regime collapses to radical Islam. A radicalized Pakistan which is already the natural enemy of India would increase the hostility between the two nations.
But check it out: China is a friend of Islamist rogue nations. If Pakistan collapses my bet is China will prop up an Islamist revolutionary Pakistan government to cause more headaches for America.
There is a lot of backroom international politicking going here and India might be the key to offset China and an ally against Islamist rogue nations. So watch the moves of India, its choices could give a bonus to China or to America depending on what back door diplomacy is being ironed out.
One other point about India: India and America have not been in each other’s friendly orbit. Even though India is a democracy, it leaned heavily on military expertise from the former Communist Soviet Union. That relationship did not amuse America in Cold War days.
Yes I do believe India is the enigmatic key in global politics. The question is which nation India will decide to ultimately align with.
Possible Outcomes of Pakistani Crisis Might Even Change a Democrat’s Mind
Pervez Musharraf has imposed martial law in Pakistan. The official reason is because radical murdering Islamist terrorists are trying to bring their Theo-Political ideology as the rule of law and depose Musharraf.
I am certain there is an element of truth to the official reason; however I am betting the actual reason is elements outside of the military within the regime are trying to depose Musharraf, specifically Pakistan’s version of the Supreme Court.
Pakistan’s Supreme Court was about to rule on the legality of Musharraf’s election as President while retaining his spot as the head of the Pakistani military. The talk was the Court ruling was not going to happen to Musharraf’s benefit.
Although I am certain Musharraf would have used the military to brush off such a judicial ruling it would have angered the people in such a way that rioting might lead to sympathy to the radical Islamists followed by a Khomeini style people’s revolution.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and eight other judges refused to support Musharraf’s “emergency order.” Musharraf’s response was to depose the Chief Justice and rename another to replace him – Abdul Hameed Dogar.
Then there is the position of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who returned to Pakistan recently under a deal with Musharraf to bring back democracy to Pakistan while siding with her families old military enemies to draw the people away from radical Islamism. Bhutto is a secular Socialist Muslim.
Bhutto officially complained about the Martial Law order; however I sense she understands her future in Pakistan will only occur with the military’s support combined with a hoped for elective support from the Pakistani people. Bhutto would be executed summarily if the likes of al Qaeda or the Taliban got their hands on her.
What was America’s official reaction? This from BBC News:
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the declaration of emergency rule was "highly regrettable" and called upon Pakistan to have free and fair elections.
In essence the US response was the politically correct response; a deposed Musharraf would be a huge hit on America’s war effort in the Middle East. It would be tough for America to lose an ally in Pakistan which could happen if Musharraf was deposed. There is the possibility that the Pakistan military might simply replace Musharraf with another top dog general and continue the policy of Musharraf under a different military political Administration.
Again though, a deposed Musharraf would pour prestige and allegiance of the Pakistani people to the radical Islamists. This could lead to a similar scenario of a Khomeini style revolution in Pakistan that the military could not stop without outright butchery and genocide.
What is the worst that could happen? O not much, a nuclear armed Wahhabi-Sunni-Taliban-al-Qaeda Islamist nation that hates America. The only plus would be incredible Sunni power probably would end the friendship with Shi’ite Iran who has no doubt been aiding the Waziristan Sunni radicals. I also suspect the old socialists in India will change their minds in rejecting America’s proffered hand of friendship and join in with American against radical Islamists in Pakistan and Iran.
Muslim Pakistan and Hindi India are nearly blood enemies and I suspect India could not stand for Mohammedan nuclear proliferation in the Middle East than America or Europe (although for different reasons).
Thus what Musharraf has done may be reported with media calm of just another dictatorial move in Pakistan; however I suspect the American military and policy strategists are scrambling to develop multiple alternative measures to choose from depending on which way the Pakistani crisis swings.
It would have been awesome to have India (the largest Western style democracy globally) in America’s camp. America even went out on a limb to strike a nuclear technology deal with India subject to approval of Congress and India’s Parliament.
There were critics on the Left in America of sharing nuclear technology with India in light of our denunciation of North Korea and Iran going nuclear. There were traditional slanted right critics (paleocons) who felt such a deal would alienate the much needed support of nuclear armed Mohammedan Pakistan on the War on Terror.
President Bush had managed to swing Congressional approval of the nuclear deal with India. Unfortunately the irony of ironies is occurring in the Indian Parliament. The Left block (Marxist/Communist associated Parties) which make up part of the ruling Parliamentary coalition of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are working to strike down the deal. That is an irony because the Left in America tentatively seems to have signed on to the deal. The reason: traditional Marxist aversion to a Capitalist America as a global hegemon and the Marxist Indian’s fear of America manipulating India’s foreign policy.
Prime Minister Singh has been lobbying hard with the Indian Parliament however it appears headed to defeat.
I suspect the Marxists in India’s Parliament wish to continue an affinity with former Communist Russia (though apparently becoming hostile toward America) and Communist China.
This is an indication to me that has its own version of polarizing politics: The old politicians of India wish to stay connected to past associations with Russia and it’s off and on again relationship with China. A new guard of Indian politicians needs to assert themselves because on paper it would seem an America/India partnership would benefit both nations in National Security and the economics of prosperity as a counter weight to Chinese ambitions to be a global military and economic hegemon at India’s expense.
I believe the ruling Indian elites are missing the big picture for the future growth and security, especially since Islamofascism is attacking India nearly as much as America. The American Media fails to report the significance of radical Islamists committing acts of terrorism against the Hindi majority of India’s population.
Let us hope President Bush and Prime Minister Singh can pull out a twelfth hour turn around for both nations’ sake.
The Axis of evil was at one time: Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Iraq was bumped from that list.
I guess the next Axis of Evil would be Syria, Iran and North Korea. All three are rogue nations destabilizing peace in their regions.
Now I am reading in the Scotsman.com that Burma is preparing to join the Axis of evil club. Burma is already a rogue nation with a horrible human rights record. The nation is ruled by a military junta Dictatorship.
Apparently Burma is rich in natural resources and is prepared to profit on those resources. Who is paying for the natural resources? China, Russia and India.
Russia is aiding Burma in preparation of nuclear plants. Does that sound familiar?
China is buying oil and setting up naval bases on Burmese islands. This is part of the Chinese military strategy known as the “String of Pearls.” This is a reference to China’s growing military that is ever increasing Asian hegemonic power.
India is not happy with China’s emerging military via a nuclear navy in the Bay of Bengal.
India is competing for oil and gas exports from Burma by selling military arms. India is loosing that wooing game because Burma is allowing China into the Bay of Bengal and Russia is fulfilling a nuclear aspiration. This means India has a nuclear competitor in Pakistan and China and potentially Burma and Iran. India is being surrounded. India has been in Russia’s orbit for years. I am thinking this nuclear power encircling of India may force India to become a full partner of America.
The Scotsman.com reports one other tidbit about Burma wanting into the Axis of Evil club. Burma has normalized relations with North Korea: The bad boy that relies on China and threatens South Korea, Japan and America.
When the Bush Administration approached India about strengthening ties, I presumed it was a good thing. When the talks turned to the topic of nuclear power exchange I thought, “Wow!” The “Wow” was because India has had a history of enmity with Mohammedan nations (Pakistan in particular) and China. At the time I believed a potential America/India alliance could hold the future in a positive light as the inevitable clash between West and political Mohammedanism crashed into explosive conflict.
I was so confident of a future ally that I overlooked the old friendship between India and the former Soviet Union. Last week Russia, China and India held a Summit discussing geopolitics in New Delhi and how the three could enhance their presumed National Interests. Officially the Summit was a cumbaya get together to talk about how the three could influence world peace (blah, blah). However the topics included North Korea and the use of multilateral diplomacy to handle global crises (such as Iran). This troika of friendship cannot be good for the good ole’ USA. If this troika embarked on economic and military cooperation it would definitely challenge American global influence and National Interests.
I still cannot get past the primary military purveyors to rogue nations and consequently to Islamofascist terrorists and an India hook-up. As I have written these words still is a huge target of Islamofascist terrorism. My guess is since the end of WWII India is second only to in the frequency radical Mohammedans murdering innocent non-Mohammedans. It was Mohammedan Imperialism in India's history that slaughtered Hindus in India and basically eradicating Buddhism in the land of its birth. Forced conversions occurred in India during the Mohammedan Imperialism. Hindus also faced extermination and torture for being polytheists; however the Hindus managed to survive extermination in India. With all this in mind what boggles me is India getting into the bed of the suppliers of its loathsome enemies.
The West seems to have set the stage about how global conflicts find a foundation. The primary element for a foundation to global conflict is to construct an alliance of reliable nations. These reliable nations may have many differing cultural formations yet the glue that commits the alliance is a co-mutual National Interest.
If one connects the dots, an emerging such alliance is Russia, China and Iran. All three of these nations have very divergent cultures that have materialized to this present date in time. At first glance the appearance is that these three nations would be enemies rather than friends. There even has been recent history that all three of these nations have had recent conflict with one another.
There is one global element that unites the trio into a commonality. It is the United States of America. Russia, China and Iran want to be at the very least a regional hegemon in their traditional spheres of influence. The US’s global hegemonic reach is a stumbling block for each of the trio’s regional National Interest.
Russia since Czarist days has sought an expansionism that produces a comfort zone from invasion. China has been East Asia’s anchor of power on a continuous basis maybe longer than any other group of people (with one sort of dynasty or another to the present day Communist regime). The trio has gravitated to each other because of mutual interests. Iran has oil and China needs oil and ironically Russiaq needs refined oil. I say “ironically” about because they have loads of there own oil but apparently have difficulty in accessing it.
Russian and China both have technology and military know how. Iran wishes to access that know how.
Thus mutual National Interests and mutual needs may (if not already) cement a new Axis to confront American National Interests.
The variable to the new Axis are a couple of other Asian big dogs: economic giant Japan and emerging economic giant (and nuclear power) India. India and Japan are extreme rivals to China. The world’s largest democracy – India – has been in the old Soviet Communist orbit in the past; India however has made significant strides to ally with America. Japan ironically has been America’s best friend in Asia since the end of WWII. Japan has never been on friendly terms with Czarist Russia or Communist USSR.
A couple of minor variables in East Asia and the Pacific that would gravitate toward America are Australia, Philippines, South Korea and the controversial Taiwan.
Notice I have excluded Europe. I suspect Western Europe would only join if they sensed an extreme threat from the Axis Trio. Although much of Eastern Europe would wish to be pro-American, they are too close to Russian hegemonic desires to be an effective aid in any thing except maybe a guerrilla war. Much of Canada is in the European frame of mind politically; however I suspect Canadian political polarization would emerge on the side of America in a pinch. However I think Canada might be extremely hesitant to commit to its old friend America without some kind of tragedy on their soil such as the Mohammedan conspiracy that was broken up a short time ago. That conspiracy was aimed at the Canadian Parliament and Prime Minister.
So here I present the global stage for what I believe the inevitable future. Russia, China and Iran will undoubtedly have their minor variables to add to their interests. There is psycho North Korea. There is the Shi’ites of Iraq. I suspect al Qaeda will join Shi’ite Iran even though al Qaeda are Wahhabi Sunni psycho Mohammedans. There is Syria. There is Hezbollah of Lebanon. I suspect al Qaeda and Hamas terrorism will influence other Mohammedan nations to join the Trio Axis. It is at this moment in which Western Europe will decide if the Axis or American hegemony will best support their regional interests. That decision will be based on oil. Will the EU fight with America to gain oil from a capitalistic market or will the EU join the Axis with guarantees of oil?
In the midst of this global conflict, I suspect a holocaust of Jews in Israel will occur. The little sliver of land known as Israel may be out of reach of American protection if the conflict goes global. This much like the Philippines was out of reach of American protection at the outset of WWII with Japan. Hopefully there will be a 21st century MacArthur that will “return” to liberate Israel before too many Jews are massacred. (Theologically speaking that MacArthur might be Jesus Christ himself.)
Again global conflict is inevitable. Ideology and regional self-interest are simply to compelling for diplomatic patience to be effective. Russia, China and Iran are already having tentacles into each other; it would be difficult to do the Siamese surgery to untangle the triplets.
